Where’s the Inflation

The general idea about inflation we are taught is that the greater the supply of money, the less a single dollar is worth, and the prices for the goods we buy should rise. This simple model usually holds true, yet policies by the Federal Reserve over the past five years have substantially increased the supply of money but have failed to stimulate above average inflation. Inflation lowers everyone’s purchasing power and erodes the real return on investments, so keeping an eye on when inflation might rise is important.

M2 Money Stock Since 2008

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Risk Free to Risky

People have long viewed bonds as a relatively risk free asset class, and who could blame them; since 1983, the Barclays Aggregate Bond Index has had an 8.1% average annual compound rate of return. During that period, it suffered only 3 negative years, with -2.9% being its worst. With interest rates inevitably rising, these numbers cannot continue. Bonds will switch from being risk free to risky. This “great rotation” from Bonds to Stocks will not be done without angst. Investors’ perception of risk will have change and managers who made their careers during the bond bull market will evolve while a new era of asset allocation is ushered in.

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